TrendPronostici — Analisi incontro

World · Friendlies · 2026 02/10/2026 · 13:35 Annullata

China Casa

Turkmenistan U20 Ospite

Chinaultime 8 registrate

P P P V V N P P

0,88 punti/gara 0,75 gol fatti 1,75 gol subiti

Turkmenistan U20ultime 4 registrate

P P P V

0,75 punti/gara 1,25 gol fatti 1,75 gol subiti

Predizione locale

Segnali statistici principali

Affidabilità Alta · 73,1% Nessun segnale netto. Qualita dei dati insufficiente. Accordo modelli 96,5%.

3 segnali selezionati da 147 mercati calcolati. Sono esclusi eventi quasi certi, duplicati e linee estreme che non aggiungono valore all'analisi.

Esito finale 1 · Vittoria casa Storico combinato 45,0% · 695 rilevazioni

45,0%

Esito finale 2 · Vittoria ospite Storico combinato 31,2% · 695 rilevazioni

29,6%

Esito finale X · Pareggio Storico combinato 23,7% · 695 rilevazioni

25,5%

Controllo modelli

Confronto 1X2

Come nasce la previsione

Poisson + Elo → Ensemble

96,5% accordo Poisson–Elo

Poissongol attesi e distribuzione dei risultati + Eloforza relativa e vantaggio del campo → Ensembleprobabilità finale calibrata

Pesi statistici di partenza: Poisson 60% · Elo 40%. La calibrazione adattiva può ritararli usando le prestazioni storiche disponibili.

Poisson modello sorgente

144,8% X26,3% 228,9%

Elo modello sorgente

146,0% X22,8% 231,3%

Ensemble stima calibrata non pubblicata

145,0% X25,5% 229,6%

Modello locale	1	X	2	Verdetto	Sintesi
Dixon_coles_challenger	43,7%	28,5%	27,8%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Elo	46,0%	22,8%	31,3%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Ensemble	45,0%	25,5%	29,6%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Goal_engine	44,8%	26,3%	28,9%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Lightgbm_market_aware	24,9%	43,2%	31,9%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Lightgbm_no_market	24,9%	43,2%	31,9%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Poisson	44,8%	26,3%	28,9%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Xgboost_market_aware	26,9%	42,5%	30,6%	—	Calcolo matematico locale
Xgboost_no_market	26,9%	42,5%	30,6%	—	Calcolo matematico locale

Forma recente

Ultimi risultati

Risultati ufficiali importati, ordinati dal più recente.

China

P 06/10/2026China 0–1 Tajikistan P 02/10/2026China 0–5 Palestine P 27/09/2026China 0–3 New Zealand V 24/09/2026China 3–0 Maldives U20 V 10/09/2026China 2–0 Uzbekistan U23 N 11/07/2026China 1–1 Nigeria P 08/07/2026China 0–2 Tanzania P 07/07/2026Myanmar 2–0 China

Turkmenistan U20

P 19/05/2026Turkmenistan U20 0–2 Uzbekistan U20 P 15/05/2026Kyrgyz Republic U20 2–1 Turkmenistan U20 P 13/05/2026Tajikistan 2–1 Turkmenistan U20 V 12/05/2026Afghanistan U20 1–3 Turkmenistan U20

Contesto competitivo

Calendario e classifica

Posizione corrente e calendario stagionale delle due squadre.

Calendario delle squadre

G.	Data	Partita	Ris.
—	26/01	Uzbekistan U18 – China	2–2
—	09/02	China – Uzbekistan U20	1–1
—	28/03	China – Korea DPR U23	1–1
—	31/03	China – Australia U20	2–4
—	31/03	China – Vietnam U23	1–0
—	12/05	Afghanistan U20 – Turkmenistan U20	1–3
—	13/05	Tajikistan – Turkmenistan U20	2–1
—	15/05	Kyrgyz Republic U20 – Turkmenistan U20	2–1
—	19/05	Turkmenistan U20 – Uzbekistan U20	0–2
—	05/06	Singapore – China	1–2
—	09/06	China – Thailand U23	0–0
—	05/07	China – Australia U17	3–0
—	07/07	Myanmar – China	2–0
—	08/07	China – Tanzania	0–2
—	11/07	China – Nigeria	1–1
—	10/09	China – Uzbekistan U23	2–0
—	24/09	Turkmenistan U20 – New Zealand	—
—	24/09	China – Maldives U20	3–0
—	27/09	China – New Zealand	0–3
—	28/09	Turkmenistan U20 – Palestine	—
—	02/10	China – Palestine	0–5
—	02/10	China – Turkmenistan U20	—
—	06/10	China – Tajikistan	0–1

Classifica corrente

#	Squadra	PG	DR	Pt
1	Brazil	14	30	39
2	Russia	16	23	36
3	Argentina	11	29	30
4	Mexico W U17	12	8	22
5	Norway U19	14	9	21
6	Germany U17	9	9	21
7	Austria	11	2	21
8	Romania	10	5	20
9	Tajikistan	12	0	20
10	China	16	-5	20
11	Morocco U18	9	10	18
12	Italy U18	8	7	18
13	Algeria U23	8	12	17
14	Spain U18	7	10	17
15	Poland U17	8	8	17
16	Portugal U17	8	8	17
17	Panama	11	4	17
18	Hungary U17	9	3	17
19	Serbia	12	-6	17
20	Vietnam U23	8	13	16
21	Turkey U17	6	12	16
22	England U18	8	8	16
23	Japan U23	6	6	16
24	Croatia U18	9	5	16
25	Saudi Arabia	15	-6	16
26	Portugal U18	7	9	15
27	Uzbekistan U20	8	8	15
28	Paraguay	7	6	15
29	USA	8	4	15
30	Canada	9	3	15
31	Slovenia	9	6	14
32	Nigeria	14	-3	14
33	Belgium U17	6	13	13
34	Spain U17	5	13	13
35	Jamaica	6	11	13
36	Belarus	5	6	13
37	Senegal	6	6	13
38	Kyrgyz Republic U20	7	5	13
39	South Korea	9	2	13
40	Lithuania	9	0	13
41	Uzbekistan U18	11	-1	13
42	USA U19	5	9	12
43	Ivory Coast	5	7	12
44	Georgia U17	8	2	12
45	France U17	7	0	12
46	Cyprus U19	9	-4	12
47	Chile U17	9	-5	12
48	Uruguay U17	7	6	11
49	Bulgaria U19	6	5	11
50	Fiji	5	4	11
51	Iraq U20	5	4	11
52	Montenegro U18	6	3	11
53	Ukraine U18	7	3	11
54	Netherlands U17	8	0	11
55	Jordan U23	9	-3	11
56	India	11	-7	11
57	Gibraltar	4	9	10
58	Pakistan	4	7	10
59	Croatia U19	6	4	10
60	United States U20	5	4	10
61	Palestine	8	2	10
62	Colombia	7	2	10
63	Egypt U19	7	1	10
64	Ukraine U17	8	-1	10
65	Australia U17	8	-2	10
66	Benin	7	-5	10
67	Sri Lanka	3	6	9
68	USA U21	4	6	9
69	England U17	4	5	9
70	Tanzania	3	5	9
71	Iran	6	4	9
72	Italy U19	4	4	9
73	Zimbabwe	4	3	9
74	Uruguay U18	3	3	9
75	England U19	4	2	9
76	Azerbaijan	5	1	9
77	USA U18	8	-1	9
78	Turkey U18	8	-5	9
79	Rep. Of Ireland	4	6	8
80	UAE U23	4	5	8
81	Togo	4	5	8
82	Slovakia U18	4	3	8
83	Germany U19	4	2	8
84	Israel U19	4	2	8
85	Sweden U17	6	0	8
86	Ecuador U17	6	0	8
87	Northern Ireland U17	5	0	8
88	Moldova	8	-2	8
89	Korea Republic U23	6	-2	8
90	Tunisia U20	6	-2	8
91	Jordan U20	7	-3	8
92	Bahrain	7	-7	8
93	Finland U17	8	-12	8
94	Portugal U19	3	9	7
95	Lebanon	4	5	7
96	Hungary U19	3	5	7
97	Finland U18	3	4	7
98	Kyrgyzstan	5	3	7
99	Indonesia	4	3	7
100	Sweden U19	3	2	7
101	Netherlands U18	3	2	7
102	Belgium U19	3	2	7
103	Italy U17	5	-1	7
104	Mauritania	5	-1	7
105	Philippines	2	8	6
106	Cambodia	2	6	6
107	Cape Verde Islands	2	6	6
108	Republic of Ireland U19	3	5	6
109	Türkiye	2	5	6
110	Finland U21	2	4	6
111	Latvia U17	3	3	6
112	Estonia U19	3	3	6
113	United Arab Emirates	3	3	6
114	Czechia	2	3	6
115	Poland U19	3	3	6
116	Spain U19	2	3	6
117	Japan U18	3	2	6
118	Switzerland U17	6	1	6
119	Singapore	6	1	6
120	Scotland U17	6	1	6
121	France U19	3	1	6
122	Japan U21	4	1	6
123	Switzerland U19	3	1	6
124	Solomon Islands U19	5	0	6
125	Norway U18	5	0	6
126	Malta U17	4	0	6
127	Myanmar	4	-1	6
128	South Africa	6	-1	6
129	Czech Republic U17	4	-2	6
130	Bangladesh	5	-2	6
131	Greece U19	8	-3	6
132	Wales U19	9	-9	6
133	Kenya	3	4	5
134	Czech Republic U19	5	3	5
135	Croatia U21	3	2	5
136	Korea DPR U23	3	2	5
137	Vanuatu	5	1	5
138	Morocco U23	3	1	5
139	Latvia U19	5	-2	5
140	New Zealand	5	-2	5
141	Equatorial Guinea	6	-2	5
142	Albania U21	7	-3	5
143	Venezuela	7	-4	5
144	Thailand U23	6	-5	5
145	Congo DR	7	-5	5
146	Burkina Faso	5	-7	5
147	Turkey U19	7	-7	5
148	Qatar U20	9	-9	5
149	Afghanistan U20	8	-9	5
150	Peru	8	-10	5
151	Malta U19	2	4	4
152	Côte d'Ivoire U20	2	3	4
153	Angola	2	3	4
154	Egypt U20	2	3	4
155	Norway U17	2	2	4
156	Uganda	2	2	4
157	Kosovo	4	1	4
158	Qatar U17	2	1	4
159	Ukraine U19	3	1	4
160	Denmark U17	2	1	4
161	Liberia	4	0	4
162	Japan U19	3	-1	4
163	Madagascar	3	-1	4
164	Slovakia U19	4	-1	4
165	France U21	3	-1	4
166	Iraq	3	-1	4
167	Kyrgyz Republic U23	3	-1	4
168	Kuwait	5	-2	4
169	Papua New Guinea	4	-2	4
170	Qatar U23	4	-3	4
171	Republic of Ireland U17	5	-5	4
172	Trinidad and Tobago U20	6	-6	4
173	Haiti	5	-7	4
174	Andorra	6	-7	4
175	Syria	7	-11	4
176	Bolivia	8	-14	4
177	Albania U17	1	5	3
178	Portugal U21	1	4	3
179	Luxembourg U19	1	3	3
180	Los Angeles FC	1	3	3
181	Luxembourg U17	1	3	3
182	Australia U20	1	2	3
183	Spain U20	1	2	3
184	Togo U20	1	2	3
185	Curaçao	2	1	3
186	Cook Islands	1	1	3
187	Eswatini U23	1	1	3
188	Netherlands U21	1	1	3
189	Tunisia U18	1	1	3
190	Bulgaria U21	1	1	3
191	Cameroon	1	1	3
192	Costa Rica U23	1	1	3
193	Israel U21	1	1	3
194	Italy U21	1	1	3
195	Japan U20	1	1	3
196	Las Vegas Lights	1	1	3
197	Louisville City	1	1	3
198	North Macedonia U20	1	1	3
199	Turkey U21	1	1	3
200	Denmark U18	3	0	3
201	Oman	2	0	3
202	Oman U23	2	0	3
203	Hong Kong	2	0	3
204	United States U17	2	0	3
205	Yemen U20	2	0	3
206	Comoros	3	-1	3
207	Sierra Leone	2	-1	3
208	Luxembourg U18	3	-1	3
209	Korea Republic U17	2	-2	3
210	Turkmenistan U20	4	-2	3
211	Hungary U18	4	-2	3
212	Dominican Republic U23	3	-2	3
213	Mozambique	3	-2	3
214	Albania U19	2	-2	3
215	British Virgin Islands	2	-2	3
216	Algeria U18	2	-2	3
217	Uzbekistan U23	5	-4	3
218	El Salvador	5	-4	3
219	St. Vincent / Gren. U20	2	-4	3
220	New Caledonia	4	-5	3
221	Scotland U19	3	-5	3
222	Botswana	4	-5	3
223	Faroe Islands	4	-7	3
224	Mexico U20	4	-7	3
225	Libya	2	0	2
226	Peru U20	2	0	2
227	Republic of Ireland U21	2	0	2
228	Algeria U20	2	0	2
229	Bosnia-Herzegovina U17	2	0	2
230	Denmark U19	3	-1	2
231	Ireland U18	3	-1	2
232	Malawi	3	-1	2
233	Mali	3	-2	2
234	Armenia	4	-3	2
235	UAE U20	4	-3	2
236	FYR Macedonia	3	-4	2
237	Netherlands U19	4	-6	2
238	Kazakhstan	6	-7	2
239	Iceland	8	-14	2
240	England U20	1	0	1
241	Italy U20	1	0	1
242	Australia U23	1	0	1
243	Club Tijuana	1	0	1
244	Konyaspor	1	0	1
245	PSG U17	1	0	1
246	ABFF U19	1	0	1
247	Bosnia-Herzegovina U19	1	0	1
248	Cyprus U21	1	0	1
249	Ecuador U20	1	0	1
250	Ethiopia	1	0	1
251	Georgia U19	1	0	1
252	Guinea-Bissau	1	0	1
253	Mali U23	1	0	1
254	Montenegro U21	1	0	1
255	Uzbekistan U19	1	0	1
256	Croatia U17	1	0	1
257	Iran U20	1	0	1
258	Luxembourg U21	1	0	1
259	Rwanda	1	0	1
260	Sao Tome and Principe	1	0	1
261	Niger	2	-1	1
262	Bulgaria U18	2	-1	1
263	Greece U21	2	-1	1
264	Chile U20	2	-1	1
265	Northern Ireland U19	2	-1	1
266	Belgium U18	2	-1	1
267	Oman U20	3	-2	1
268	Honduras	2	-2	1
269	Denmark U20	2	-3	1
270	Finland U19	3	-3	1
271	San Marino	4	-3	1
272	Central African Republic	2	-3	1
273	Lesotho	2	-4	1
274	Ukraine U21	3	-5	1
275	Nicaragua	3	-6	1
276	Zambia U23	3	-6	1
277	Ghana	4	-7	1
278	Grenada	4	-8	1
279	Estonia U17	5	-10	1
280	Costa Rica U20	5	-11	1
281	Guatemala	5	-13	1
282	Maldives U20	7	-22	1
283	Antigua and Barbuda	0	0	0
284	DC United	0	0	0
285	Djibouti	0	0	0
286	Lusail City	0	0	0
287	Minnesota United FC	0	0	0
288	Pakhtakor	0	0	0
289	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	0	0	0
290	Sudan	0	0	0
291	Mauritius	1	-1	0
292	Tahiti	1	-1	0
293	Uruguay U20	1	-1	0
294	Belgium U21	1	-1	0
295	Gangwon FC	1	-1	0
296	Germany U18	1	-1	0
297	Oman U19	1	-1	0
298	Rangers U17	1	-1	0
299	Yongin City	1	-1	0
300	Anguilla	1	-1	0
301	Cuba U23	1	-1	0
302	Czech Republic U18	1	-1	0
303	Hungary U21	1	-1	0
304	Iraq U19	1	-1	0
305	Montenegro U19	1	-1	0
306	Israel U17	2	-2	0
307	FC Urartu	1	-2	0
308	Georgia U21	2	-2	0
309	Japan U17	2	-2	0
310	North Macedonia U17	2	-2	0
311	Greece U17	1	-2	0
312	Sweden U21	1	-2	0
313	Bonaire	1	-2	0
314	Bosnia & Herzegovina U18	1	-2	0
315	Fiji U19	1	-2	0
316	Martinique	1	-2	0
317	Norway U21	1	-2	0
318	Philadelphia Union II	1	-2	0
319	Seychelles	1	-2	0
320	Togo U23	1	-2	0
321	Wales U18	1	-2	0
322	Gambia	2	-3	0
323	Cayman Islands	1	-3	0
324	Malta U21	1	-3	0
325	Puerto Rico	1	-3	0
326	Tunisia U23	1	-3	0
327	North Macedonia U21	3	-4	0
328	Poland U18	2	-4	0
329	Aruba	1	-4	0
330	Iraq U23	2	-4	0
331	Liechtenstein U19	1	-4	0
332	Northern Ireland U21	1	-4	0
333	Cuba U20	1	-5	0
334	Bermuda	2	-5	0
335	Bulgaria U17	1	-5	0
336	Burundi	1	-5	0
337	Mongolia	2	-6	0
338	Namibia	1	-6	0
339	Siheung Citizen	1	-6	0
340	North Macedonia U18	4	-7	0
341	North Macedonia U19	2	-7	0
342	Guam	2	-9	0
343	Liechtenstein U21	5	-9	0
344	Bhutan U23	4	-13	0

Trend longitudinali

Rendimento nelle stagioni

Indicatori calcolati sulle partite concluse e andamento del rating Elo.

China

202616 partite

Punti/partita1,25

Gol fatti/partita1,13

Vittorie31,3%

Over 2.543,8%

Goal37,5%

Turkmenistan U20

20264 partite

Punti/partita0,75

Gol fatti/partita1,25

Vittorie25,0%

Over 2.575,0%

Goal75,0%

Andamento rating Elo

Aggiornato dal batch locale

ChinaTurkmenistan U20

Segnali statistici principali

Confronto 1X2

Poisson + Elo → Ensemble

Ultimi risultati

China

Turkmenistan U20

Calendario e classifica

Calendario delle squadre

Classifica corrente

Rendimento nelle stagioni

China

Turkmenistan U20

Andamento rating Elo

Installa TrendPronostici

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